Paper: Duration Analysis of Farmer Adoption of New Technologies and Markets in Nicaragua: Quality-Niche versus Commodity Vegetables

In this paper we propose to address the above two relative gaps in the literature. Using a constructed-panel over 10 years of horticultural growers in Nicaragua, we address three questions: (1) What are the determinants of adoption per se, and (waiting) time to adoption, of farmers into the supermarket channel? (2) What are the determinants of “duration” as supermarket suppliers? (3) What is the effect of time to adoption and duration on farm capital and farm technology choice, in particular of modern technologies for “capital-led intensification” (a term used by Lele and Stone, 1989)? For questions 1 and 2 we want to particularly analyze the effect of product choice (production of niche crops) and use of drip irrigation (a modern technology) as determinants of adoption and duration as supermarket suppliers. We address these questions with a single-spell duration model framework with timevarying and time-invariant covariates. The analysis uses a panel constructed from a stratified random sample of horticultural growers (supermarket suppliers and non-suppliers) collected in 2010 (with 10 year recalls). We follow Carletto et al. (2010) in the general empirical approach for the determinants of time to adoption and duration, but add a stage of analysis of impacts of these on farm assets and technology choice (two categories of analysis absent in the Carletto analysis.)